Analysis | September 29, 2020

KTM Commodity Weekly: Momentum appears to have stalled

Brent crude oil rose to $42.90 per barrel on Monday but still stuck in a narrow range, and this week is also unlikely to feature any significant triggers. Rising COVID cases in Europe and the return of oil from Libya are capping the oil price.

Support from the 100MA is still available, and the daily indicators suggest the price could try to break the higher end of the range. As shown in the below chart, the price has been stuck in a narrow range of $39.50 and $44.15 since September 08.

The week ahead: The price action may remain a range of $39.50, its 23.6% fib to $44 its 200MA. However, the latest price correction and the ongoing range trading suggests that the price is preparing for the next leg higher towards $50 and $52.50 in the medium term. A weekly close above $46.60 could propel the price towards $50 levels.

As we noted last week, we are still anticipating the bullish pattern of the Golden Crossover in the coming days.

Traders are waiting for OPEC World Oil Outlook via videoconference in Vienna on October 08. OPEC’s Secretary-General, HE Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo, will present the major findings of the WOO (World Oil Outlook) . Recently OPEC published a bearish forecast for 2020 and 2021. In its latest MOMR published on September 14, OPEC said demand in this year to shrink by 9.46 mb/d and for 2021, the demand to grow by 6.62 mb/d.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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