Analysis | March 2, 2021

KTM Commodity Weekly: Continues to eye a key medium-term resistance level

Brent crude oil registered the worst fall in four-months after clocking a new high last week.  On Monday, the price falls nearly 4%, the most since 29 October 2020, to close at $63. Last week, the price refresh new high to $66.75 but the 100MA on the monthly chart cap the price. The near-term trend tilted in favor of sellers.

The previous peak suggests that rallies to 100MA (Monthly) will attract selling interest. On top of this, weekly and daily indicators representing bearish.

Since last week’s high, Brent crude oil was under pressure, mostly on the back of the dollar strength.  From here, keep an eye on $63 and $62.20-61.50. A breakdown below $61.50 would be a sign of the near-term trend has reversed. I would think around 20-DMA, the price should get good support. And I don’t see the Brent going back below $57 in the near-term.

100MA in focus

H&S pattern at the top of the channel-bearish


After a spectacular rally, again, traders are eying at this week’s OPEC+ meeting for fresh clues. Brent started the week on a weaker note ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on Thursday. Since the beginning of this year, Brent crude oil rallied nearly 30%. At the current oil strength, once could raise concerns of easing production cut and raise output, but what figure would the group raise the outcome is still unknown. In case of another surprise production cut, $70 is the immediate target for Brent crude oil price.

It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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