Analysis | September 16, 2020

KTM Commodity View: 100MA is the life line

After relentless selling pressure, last week, the Oil price hit the ground around 100MA. Since then, the Brent oil has been stuck in sideways.

On Monday, OPEC released its monthly market report. The Fourteenth of September 2020 is an excellent day for OPEC. This sees the Organization celebrated its 60th anniversary.

Past two weeks, the oil price fell more than 15% from August high and closed below the 20MA (Weekly). The sentiment turns to bearish on few catalysts, lack of demand, and Saudi Arabia cut prices.

On Monday, OPEC published a bearish forecast for 2020 and 2021. In its latest MOMR, OPEC said demand in this year to shrink by 9.46 mb/d, and for 2021 the demand to grow by 6.62 mb/d (see chart below).

Looking ahead, today, we will see IEA monthly market report, and we are watching closely for its latest demand forecast. The OPEC and IEA demand forecasts are the new catalysts for the Brent oil price in the near term.

Technically, the price of all the key moving averages (20,50 and 100) on the daily chart and lost 20MA weekly chart. Turning to the daily indicators, the RSI is oversold at 29, and the oscillator turned to bullish crossover.

According to the daily chart, the key support levels are placed at $39.50, followed by $38.30 and $37.15. If the price moves up, the key resistance levels to watch out are $40.70 and $41.40.

 It is important to always keep in mind the risks involved in trading with leveraged instruments.

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