Analysis | March 16, 2021

KTM Commodity Weekly: Probably a double top

Brent crude oil price has been weaker after Saudi Arabia’s most secured storage facilities came under attack last weekend. As a result, Brent rallied to $71 at the start but lost the height rapidly. Now a daily close below $66 would be the end of the near-term bullish story for Brent.

The CRB index, which consists of 19 commodities is trading at 206, gained 15% YTD to the highest since May 2018. The near-term resistance spread between 208-210, which indicates $70-74 on the Brent chart.

Like the Bitcoin chart, Brent crude oil price on the daily chart has been trading higher on the negative divergence. Past two weeks, oil price action paused at the 100MA on the monthly chart. The near-term trend tilted in favor of cautions from bullish. Turning to indicators, the weekly RSI reached a level of 79 for the second time since January 2018. On top of this, daily 14-RSI is developing a bearish H&S pattern. All these favors suggesting near-term downside risk still intact.

Immediate support exists at $67.50 and $66. If the price starts moving higher, $69.70 and $71 are the levels to watch out for.

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